Large Russian traders are still waiting for the resumption of the Black Sea grain deal. Export duties do not allow entering the exchange markets with competitive offers. At the moment, no improvement is expected: the leaders of Russia and Turkey failed to reach an agreement following the negotiations in Sochi.

On the other hand, Russia plans to export grain and fertilizers independently.

Negotiations are currently underway with six African countries on the export of Russian wheat. In addition, the growth of grain shipments to foreign markets is already explained by significant carry-over stocks and strong demand from the Middle East and North Africa. Against this backdrop, a seasonal increase in freight rates for Handysize and Supramax segments is expected.

Idle vessels under the Kerch Bridge affect business activity in the region.

To keep rates at an acceptable level, some shipowners propose to add an additional clause to recap, distributing responsibility for the 10-day waiting time between charterers and shipowners.

Despite the difficult situation, the Russian Ministry of Transport agreed to open the Kerch Strait for fertilizers in big bags.

This was a response to the proposal of the business ombudsman Boris Titov to allow the transport of fertilizers (excluding ammonium nitrate) under enhanced safety measures. The Russian Ministry of Transport is pushing this initiative to a higher level, especially since major fertilizer producers cannot effectively distribute products: oversupply of the domestic market, export difficulties, and terminals of the NMTP are unable to take on significant additional volumes from the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Indian shipowners in the Handysize segment describe the Black Sea region as a hot area of the freight market.

A significant increase in rates is expected this season. It is extremely difficult to find handy cargoes in the Bay of Bengal region, so the fleet may well be redirected to more profitable markets.

Sincerely, Konstantin Grinevich and Glogos Project