The Azov–Black Sea basin coaster segment in the second week of October was in the range of high $40s USD (Rostov–Marmara basis).

Turkish importers are still facing heavy warehouse congestion amid record harvests, and their purchasing power has yet to recover. Russian exporters are also adjusting to new export duties. In the coming weeks, further rate declines are expected due to the large tonnage available in the region. The situation with passage through the Kerch Strait also remains unchanged: vessels under the Russian flag spend between 5 and 25 days, while foreign bulk carriers undergo additional inspections and documentation checks, resulting in significantly longer waiting times.

Major Deep Sea Vessel Groups Still Considered at Relatively High Levels.
In the second week of October, daily rates for handy, supra, ultra, and panamax segments remain about twice as high as in late summer.

Ultramax is around $15,000/day (CHINA–NOPAC), handysize is about $13,000/day (CONTI–ECSA). Handysize bulkers RUS BLACK SEA – EMED/N. AFRICA are estimated by shipowners at high $20s/ton. A 30,000 DWT vessel from Novorossiysk to Bangladesh is rated in the low $50s USD. Russian exporters continue to face challenges due to state regulation mechanisms — with export duties making it increasingly difficult to sell, especially given high freight rates. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that from October 18, 2023, the wheat export duty from Russia will rise to 5,734.7 RUB/ton from 5,224 RUB/ton a week earlier, a 9.8% increase. The barley duty will fall to 772.6 RUB from 1,166.1 RUB/ton, while the corn duty will rise to 3,271.8 RUB from 3,120.8 RUB/ton. Indicative prices used for calculation: $251.2/ton for wheat ($248.8 a week earlier), $169.3 for barley ($178.4), $204.9 for corn ($206.8). Duties will remain in effect until October 24.

Some positive tendencies are also present: France and Romania are rapidly exhausting their wheat export volumes. According to port operator Haropa, during October 5–11, wheat exports from the port of Rouen (France) totaled 38.35 thousand tons, 63% lower than the previous week. Main buyers for these shipments — Algeria and China, both markets traditionally attractive for Russian exporters. In Russia, experts forecast October wheat shipments at 4.5–4.8 million tons. However, price pressure and lack of liquidity among buyers are forcing traders to return to discounts, as was observed earlier this summer.

Baltic Market Remains Stable

The main export routes for handymax–ultramax volumes — SOUTH AMERICA, WMED, WC AFRICA — continue to show relatively high freight rates. Handysize vessels RUS BALTIC – SOUTH AMERICA are estimated at the mid-$30s/ton (wheat). Strong demand is also seen on the Russia–China route: a 30,000 DWT vessel RUS BALTIC – CHINA is rated at around $60/ton.

We expect Baltic freight rates to rise with the onset of winter, as the available tonnage is likely to decrease when non-ice-class vessels shift to markets in other regions.

Sincerely, Konstantin Grinevich and Glogos Project